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Prediction for CME (2017-09-10T16:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-10T16:00Z
CME Note: Associated with X8.2 flare from AR 12673. Arrival at of CME-associated disturbance DSCOVR has no clear flux-rope signature, shock only.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-12T19:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -50
Dst min. time: 2017-09-13T01:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-12T01:30Z (-3.0h, +3.0h)
Prediction Method: Ooty IPS
Prediction Method Note:

Dear Sandro and all,

I have tracked the CME associated with X8.2 flare event. Ooty IPS
showed that the CME crossed the midway between the Sun and 
Earth distance in about 15 hours after its onset and at this distance 
speed of the CME was around 1000 to 1200 km/s. The CME seems 
to be not decelerating much. 

Ooty IPS observations show that the CME is likely to arrive at 1-AU
distance around 0 to 3 UT on 12 SEP 2017. It is likely that the shock 
associated with the CME would likely arrive around 20 to 22 UT on
11 SEP 2017. The effects of the CME would also likely seen at the
near-Earth space.

P.K. Manoharan

Lead Time: 28.95 hour(s)
Difference: 17.93 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Aleksandre Taktakishvili (GSFC) on 2017-09-11T14:29Z

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